Dry Times Ahead

While a clear picture of Texas’ spring and summer forecast has yet to come into focus, the current evidence indicates a warmer, drier spring is on its way, which could, in turn, lead into yet another hotter-than-normal summer for North Texas residents.

The lack of forecast focus is partly due to the absence of a strong atmospheric or oceanic driver on atmospheric circulation, said Bob Rose, chief meteorologist with Lower Colorado River Authority. The Austin-based public utility generates and transmits power and manages the Lower Colorado River. 

This winter’s weak La Niña, which developed later than originally predicted in December 2024, most likely will dissipate in the early spring as the Pacific returns to a “neutral” state for mid and late spring, he said.  

According to the National Weather Service’s website, La Niña refers to below-average sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and is often associated with bringing warmer, drier conditions to Texas and the Southeast. El Niño refers to above-average sea-surface temperatures, and this can bring cooler, wetter conditions to this area.

“Even with La Niña expected to dissipate, several forecast solutions indicate the atmosphere will continue to show characteristics of a La Niña through late spring, meaning drier and warmer weather for Texas,” he said. “However, should other atmospheric features not seen at this time overwhelm the left over La Niña signal, it could result in a different outcome.”

Rose said various computer-forecast solutions indicate that spring weather conditions across Texas will be warmer than normal, with rainfall averaging slightly below normal. These forecasts appear to predict a lingering La Niña-like circulation to continue through the spring months, with the storm track most often staying to the north of the state. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasters, in collaboration with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), have stated they expect drought conditions to persist and worsen across the central and southern Plains of the country.

As of press time, the U.S. Drought Monitor map shows the majority of the Lone Star State already experiencing “abnormally dry” to varying degrees of drought conditions. The combination of dry soils, and weak high pressure over the region could lead to the development of warmer-than-normal temperatures, he said.

During drought conditions, dry soils with diminished plant cover absorb more of the sun’s heat, which can encourage high-pressure systems. High-pressure systems  further prevent  rain by pushing down on air trying to rise at the surface. This stops moisture from cooling and condensing into clouds and raindrops, resulting in even drier soil and priming the atmosphere for above-average temperatures. 

“With a prediction for below-average rainfall through spring, I’m not confident we’ll see much drought improvement,” Rose said. “With rainfall overall expected to average below normal, I believe most areas will see drought conditions expand and slowly grow worse.” 

Rose said it was still too early to predict the summer outlook, as much will depend on spring rainfall and where the summer heat dome ultimately sets up. The answer to both of these is still very uncertain, he said.   

“May is typically the wettest and stormiest month of the year for most of Texas,” he said. “It’s definitely not out of the question for some of the May storm systems to stall or be wetter than are currently forecast. But even though May might offer some hope for some areas to see improvement in the drought, in the big picture overall drought conditions are expected to grow worse.”

The good news is that Texas is ready for a warmer-than-normal spring and even a warmer-than-normal summer, said Jim Galvin, United’s vice president of power supply and risk management.

Galvin said ERCOT has calculated a less than 1 percent probability of an Energy Emergency Alert being issued during the spring . 

He suspected that, while not impossible,  chances were low for this summer also. ERCOT predicted a peak load of 86,700 MW  in their Capacity Demand and Reserves report and a total capacity of 103,105 MW, giving a comfortable reserve margin of more than 20 percent.

A reserve margin is the state’s cushion of energy produced over the predicted peak-energy-use amount. In years past, ERCOT’s minimum target reserve margin was 13.75 percent, though it has gone lower.

“I think we’ll expect our typical Texas summer,” Galvin said “There’s nothing out there now that indicates that there’s shortage of generation. I think we will likely see reserve challenges on really hot days, but there’s no way to tell or forecast that right now. I think with the expectation of it being a fairly warm summer, we still have sufficient available capacity.”

Galvin said when reserves get low, ERCOT will begin Energy Emergency Alerts. These begin with notices of conservation, but could result in controlled rotating outages if reserves get dangerously low.

“If there’s any concern around reliability, it’s still likely to take place during the evenings as the sun goes down between 6 and 9 p.m., especially if there is low wind generation. If we were to have controlled rotating outages during that time, it would be for a very short period.”

When the mercury rises, the thermostats keep air conditioners running hard to keep interiors cool, Galvin said. United members should consider planning to save energy and energy dollars now before the heat of summer arrives.

Keeping the thermostat at a moderate temperature helps keep personal costs down. United recommends 78 degrees during summer months (for every degree more than that, it can add 5 percent in energy costs). He also suggested checking seals on windows and doors.

“I also highly recommended booking a free home energy audit with a United energy expert to discover where energy escapes in a member’s home and what they can do to stop it,” he said. “Then by investing in improving their home’s energy envelope, members can keep their energy costs down during the dog days of summer.”

Visit United’s My Home section at www.ucs.net to learn more about summertime  energy conservation, or call any United office to schedule a free home energy audit.