Milder, Drier Winter

Whether consulting the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s winter weather outlook or The Farmers’ Almanac, Texas’ overall forecast calls for a warmer, drier winter than normal.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) annual report released in October predicted North Texas can expect above-average temperatures and drier conditions with the development of a weak La Niña expected in the Pacific Ocean.

“Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored from the southern tier of the U.S. to the eastern Great Lakes, eastern seaboard, New England, and northern Alaska,” the report stated. “These probabilities are strongest along the Gulf Coast and for most of Texas.”

That forecast remained relatively unchanged in NOAA’s updated outlook released Nov. 21, said Bob Rose, chief meteorologist with Lower Colorado River Authority. The Austin-based public utility generates and transmits power, manages the lower Colorado River and provides more than 40 parks along the river.

However, the La Niña that the October report predicted would develop had yet to materialize by the beginning of December, he said.

“The Climate Prediction Center is still indicating there is a little better than 50/50 odds La Niña will develop sometime in December,” Rose said. “Regardless of whether La Niña officially develops or not, the combination of the cooler than normal waters in the Pacific Ocean and other oscillations taking place in the oceans and atmosphere all point to the jet stream often staying north of Texas over the upcoming winter. This is expected to result in fewer storm systems and blasts of chilly air compared to a typical winter.”

October and November’s weather was warmer and drier than normal across Texas without the help of an officially declared La Niña, Rose said. The factors in the ocean and atmosphere that caused this outcome are expected to continue through the winter.

Should La Niña develop, he said, then it will help to reinforce the pattern, though it will be weak and short-lived. Forecasters expect it to dissipate in March, with neutral conditions holding in place for spring going into summer.

“The long-range forecast solutions show a trend toward near-normal rainfall in the spring months,” Rose said. “At the same time, temperatures are predicted to remain warmer than normal. It’s too early still to get a handle on next summer’s weather.”

Rose said he still expects periods of cold weather and rain from time to time, though chances of another Winter Storm Uri-like event this year appear unlikely. The Uri event during the winter of 2021 brought below-freezing temperatures to the Lone Star State, and millions lost power as electrical supply couldn’t keep up with demand.

Breakdowns in the polar vortex are more common in La Niña years, he said, and this can cause Arctic air to move farther south than normal. The La Niña during 2020 and 2021 was of moderate strength and was very engaged with the atmosphere, Rose said, whereas this year’s predicted La Niña had yet to develop as of the beginning of December.

“Even if it does develop over the next few weeks, it is expected to only have a weak engagement with the atmosphere,” Rose said. “There is at least some chance for a polar vortex breakdown in any winter, despite the development of La Nina, or not. That being said, I do not think the possible development of La Niña this winter will make an event similar to what we experienced in 2021 more likely.”

Jim Galvin is United’s vice president of power supply & risk management. He said that ERCOT believes that there is a low risk of experiencing emergency conditions that may result in an Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) this winter.  
 

ERCOT issues EEA events when projected demand is high enough to project low reserve capacity for available generation.  EEA events begin with ERCOT issuing a conservation notice to the public, but can result in short-term rolling outages if reserves are not sufficient.  

“ERCOT issuing a low risk for EEA events is likely due to the warmer than normal weather predicted for the winter,” Galvin said. “Even though the outlook for the winter is mild, ERCOT remains vigilant in monitoring weather conditions during the season. While there have been increased sources of generation, most of those new generators are renewable (primarily solar and battery), which are not as dependable as fossil fuel  generators.  However, ERCOT remains optimistic that improvements in the grid infrastructure and lessons learned from Uri will have the grid operator more prepared for such an event.”

Winter Storm Uri brought more focus on the infrastructure in the ERCOT market, which includes power supply, grid (wires) infrastructure and the supporting infrastructure, such as gas pipelines that bring fuel to the generators, Galvin said.
Owner/operators are mandated to participate in weatherization processes to harden the infrastructure, so there is optimism that the infrastructure has been improved, he said. However, Texas has not had an event like Uri to test the improvements firsthand.

“While the weather outlook is mild for the winter, it is always wise to take precautions for winter weather events driven by significant cold temperatures and freezing precipitation,” Galvin said. “Consumers should be mindful of the weather forecasts and have materials available, such as flashlights, blankets and first aid supplies, should power be disrupted.”