The Heat Is On

Predictions for the spring and summer of 2024 foretell that it might not become quite as scorching as last year.

That’s the good news for Texans who experienced the second hottest summer on record in 2023, and in turn set 10 new all-time peak records for energy use. The Lone Star State set a whopping peak hourly average demand of 85,508 megawatts (MW) on August 10 at 6 p.m., shattering former records as consumers turned thermostats down to beat blistering outdoor heat.

While modeling may indicate a slight reprieve from last year’s summer temperatures, Texans are far from off the hook in 2024. They can expect warmer, drier conditions as spring ends and summer begins, says one Texas meteorologist.

The Weather Forecast

Hotter-than-normal conditions are still in the cards again this year for the North Texas area, said Bob Rose, chief meteorologist with Lower Colorado River Authority. The Austin-based public utility generates and transmits power, manages the lower Colorado River and provides more than 40 parks along the river.

“The spring weather pattern will be heavily influenced by a weakening El Niño system, as well as an early summer heat dome,” Rose said. “Putting these two factors together, I expect spring rainfall across North Texas to be normal to slightly above normal from March through May, and spring temperatures to average warmer than normal, with some very warm temperatures possible in May.

“My summer outlook calls for another very hot summer for North Texas with numerous triple-digit days,” Rose said. “But even though I expect it to be hot, there are some signs it may not be quite as hot as last year. Forecasts are pointing toward an active hurricane season with more tropical activity in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico this summer. More clouds and tropical moisture spreading into Texas may help to hold temperatures down a bit compared to last summer’s record heat.”
Rose said the early summer heat dome is predicted to develop over Mexico and spread north to Texas by June, if not before in May.

Rain, if and when it develops, could play a role in helping to keep Texas cooler in spite of the warmer, drier conditions. Cloud cover blocks the sun, and wet ground helps dissipate heat, whereas dry ground and drought conditions help to amplify it.

Rose said the shift from El Niño, which is currently weakening, to La Niña later this summer and into fall could create warm sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and in the atmosphere. That might create favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development throughout the Gulf region.

“It’s still too early to forecast summer rainfall,” he said. “Overall, conditions are shaping up to be drier than normal, but any developing storm systems or disturbances in the tropical Atlantic due to the fading El Niño/developing La Niña could bring some healthy rain to the area, should they take a path into North Texas.”   

So far, North Texas received enough rain during the winter to end the recent drought conditions in the area, Rose said. He predicted normal to slightly above-normal rainfall through the spring this year, but said that it would have little effect on delaying the early onset of sweltering summer temperatures.

“I don’t believe the rainfall forecast this spring will be sufficient to keep the very hot temperatures from taking shape in May and June,” he said. “Last summer’s scorching hot-and-dry pattern came about as El Niño was gaining strength. However, we saw similar weather conditions in the summer of 2022, when a moderate La Niña was in place. The takeaway here appears to be neither El Niño nor La Niña have a strong influence on our summer weather pattern. Much of that depends on recent rainfall patterns, soil moisture, tropical weather and the position of the jet stream as we move into summer.”

The Energy Outlook

Along with the memorably hot and uncomfortable weather conditions, Texans may well remember the energy landscape of the summer of 2023 for years to come.

The period was peppered with regular appeals for conservation from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). Consumers watched closely on several occasions as the state’s usage hovered precariously close to the upper limit of the reserve margin, especially as Texans continued high demand past normal peak hours to run air conditioners at the same time that the state lost solar generation as the sun went down in the evening hours.

ERCOT’s Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report, released in December 2023, has forecast a planning reserve margin of 29.4 percent for the summer of 2024. The reserve margin is the state’s cushion of energy produced over the predicted peak-energy-use amount. ERCOT predicts the peak demand for summer 2024 at 83,765 MW.

The report recognized that the prediction is lower than the 2023 peak load and stated it has based that peak prediction on normal, average weather conditions during the past 15 years.

Mark Miner, director of corporate communications at ERCOT, said he believed the state’s electrical grid was in good shape to handle this summer’s demand, although Texas’ continued population growth and the regular arrival of new businesses continue to create challenges to meet that demand.

“It’s a little early right now, but we’re not anticipating any problems with [meeting consumer demand],” Miner said during a February WebEx discussion with energy communicators. “As you saw last summer, it was a very challenging summer. It’s in good shape, but it’s always going to be a challenge, and we’re always going to be facing that challenge.”

While the ERCOT grid may experience some tight conditions on hot days, the good news is that the state’s grid is designed to best handle high usage during the summer months, said Jim Galvin, United’s vice president of power supply and risk management.

“This summer is expected to be a hot Texas summer,” he said “ERCOT is experiencing load growth, and Texas is a very attractive place for people to move to as well as businesses looking to relocate. The question is do we still have enough resources to meet the growing demand? It’s likely that we’ll see multiple summer peak records again this summer, but that’s become the norm over the last several years.”

The difference now is that there are more renewable, non-dispatchable sources of generation than ever before—made up mostly of solar and wind, Galvin said. Renewable resources are less controllable than the dispatchable generation that runs on gas, coal or nuclear fuel. These resources depend on their fuel source, which is available sunlight and wind. The combination of very warm temperatures and insufficient sunlight and/or wind, as seen last year during hot nighttime temperatures as the sun went down, puts a strain on remaining fossil generation in ERCOT.

This year, about 5,000 MW of new generation is coming online in Texas, Galvin said. However, 4,000 of that is solar generation.

“Everyone hopes that nothing happens and that we stay reliable in Texas,” he said. “A worst-case scenario might include a very short period of time where ERCOT may consider emergency actions.”

When the mercury rises, the thermostats keep air conditioners running hard to keep interiors cool, Galvin said. United members should consider planning to save energy and energy dollars now before the heat of summer arrives.

Keeping the thermostat at a moderate temperature helps keep personal costs down. United recommends 78 degrees during summer months (for every degree more than that it can add 5 percent in energy costs). He also suggested checking seals on windows and doors.

“I also highly recommended booking a free home energy audit to discover where energy escapes in a member’s home and what they can do to stop it,” he said. “Then by investing in improving their home’s energy envelope, members can keep their energy costs down during the dog days of summer.”

Visit United’s My Home section at www.ucs.net to learn more about summertime  energy conservation, or call any United office to schedule a free home energy audit performed by United’s trusted energy solutions specialists.