Close Calls Meeting Consumer Demand

Despite the appearance of a weak El Niño earlier in 2023, a heat dome from Mexico settled over the Lone Star State, causing persistent hot, dry conditions across Texas this summer.

The good news is that El Niño typically brings more precipitation to Texas during winter months than in the summer. El Niño has strengthened since the summer and is forecast to stick around through winter, potentially bringing some relief to a drought-ridden Texas, according to one meteorologist. His prediction for a colder and wetter North Texas winter than 2022 might spell more energy usage to stay warm, however, members can find comfort in knowing that the chances for another winter storm Uri event look highly unlikely.

This Winter’s Forecast

Bob Rose is chief meteorologist with Lower Colorado River Authority. The Austin-based public utility generates and transmits power, manages the lower Colorado River and provides  more than 40 parks along the river.

“Winter Storm Uri was a rare event; something Texas typically sees on a 1-in-30 to 1-in-50-year reoccurrence interval,” Rose said. “Uri occurred due to a breakdown in the circulation of the polar vortex, allowing bitterly cold Arctic air to spread south into Texas. This occurred during a La Niña winter. Historically, polar vortex disruptions are less common during El Niño winters than during La Niña winters.”

While our winter weather is not predicted to rival winter storm Uri, North Texas can still expect colder, cloudy and damp days, and slightly higher-than-average rainfall, he said.

“This doesn’t necessarily mean excessive rains or flooding, but rather I expect we will see numerous periods of rain that will cause totals to exceed what is considered normal for winter,” Rose said.

Rose said the Farmers’ Almanac and other private forecasting firms have predicted a “Super El Niño” this winter, capable of bringing ice and extremely cold temperatures. However, Rose has a different take on what to expect. A Super El Niño occurs when the water temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific reaches or exceeds 2.5 degrees Celsius, and the current water temperature anomaly is just below the threshold.

“With a strong El Niño in place, we don’t tend to see the many outbreaks of Arctic air that would be necessary to cause an extremely cold winter,” Rose said.

His modeling also said we are more likely to see snow rather than ice should wintry weather develop.
As for spring and summer, Rose said it’s  way too early to speculate on next summer’s temperatures. Much will depend on how long El Niño hangs on into next year, how much rain falls this winter and spring and how warm the world’s oceans will be next summer.

The Energy Outlook

This summer, ERCOT was fraught with requests to conserve energy as high usage strained the power grid. On September 6th, during peak usage hours, ERCOT declared an Energy Emergency Alert  Level 2 (EEA 2), which is the last step before rotating outages have to take place to protect the grid. The EEA 2 was declared during a time when the temperatures were driving up energy use, the sun was setting, limiting solar energy and wind energy was not producing enough to meet the demand.

As North Texas moves into the winter months, some of the generation plants that have been running full steam all summer will have to shut down for maintenance, meaning there will be even less energy generated to meet demand.
After the close call this summer, having less generation in a time where temperatures will again be driving up energy usage can be alarming. However, energy experts are closely monitoring winter weather forecasts to prepare for conditions that could cause similar problems. The concern for this El Niño winter is that cooler temperatures will drive up energy usage while cloudy weather limits solar power during a time when there are already fewer generation plants running.

While it is unlikely to see another weather occurrence as extreme as winter storm Uri, in winter months, the peak time for energy usage switches from evening to early morning when there is less sun and more people heating their homes as they get up in the morning. As seen this summer, increased energy usage in the home during times when there is less sun creates unfavorable conditions for energy stores.

“If we experience more cloudy days due to rainy weather that will limit solar’s capacity to take up any slack for the generation plants under maintenance,” said Jim Galvin, United’s vice president  of power supply.

Some concern has already been shown by ERCOT requesting 3,000 megawatts of winter capacity to prepare for the upcoming months. Their request would have asked interested consumers to participate in demand response at ERCOT’s discretion by reducing energy usage for a period of time.  Likewise, ERCOT requested certain generators that were decommissioned to consider restarting operations for this winter. Their request has since been withdrawn due to lack of interest from consumers providing demand response and decommissioned generators.

Regardless, the request signals that consumers should be doing their part to conserve energy, when possible, for the upcoming winter.

“Typically, when we see below average temperatures and potential other adverse conditions such as snow, ice, low wind, limited solar penetration, etc., ERCOT demand is high and as ERCOT uses all available resources, their reserves will get low.  At this point they will ask the public for conservation of electricity and begin using reserves to meet demand,” Galvin said.

“With the predicted weather conditions, energy stores will be tight. With colder temperatures on the way, United members should consider voluntary reductions during those peak winter times, when possible, but not at the risk of potential harm to members and their families,” he said. “I think barring anything like winter storm Uri, we are going to manage the winter alright, but we should always be vigilant. We should always be watching the weather and cognizant that demand is going to be high on those cold nights and early mornings. If there are things we can do to help, let’s do them.”

A few ways that he suggests saving energy are keeping the thermostat at a moderate temperature. United recommends 68 degrees during winter months (for every degree more than that it can add 5 percent to an energy bill), checking seals on windows and doors.

“We’re all hopeful that nothing happens and that we stay reliable,” Galvin said. “I would think that if the worst-case scenario were to happen, it would be like last winter. It may just be a very short period of time where ERCOT may consider emergency actions.”

Visit United's My Home section to learn more about winter energy conservation,  or call any United office to schedule a free home energy audit performed by United’s trusted energy solutions specialists.