With La Niña conditions set up in the Pacific Ocean, Texas appears ready to experience overall a warmer, drier-than-normal winter at the end of 2025 and into 2026. That could mean a reprieve from high energy bills created by Texans trying to stay warm.

The question remains, however, whether La Niña might also bring with it chances of extreme cold weather events capable of punching down from the north into Texas at some point. That could tax energy resources in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) market as Texans try to stay warm.

A Grip on Winter’s Weather
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported in October that La Niña conditions emerged in September and were expected to persist as long as February 2026. North Texas can expect the warmer conditions, according to documents at noaa.gov, but it has equal chances of having higher-than normal, lower-than normal, or average amounts of rainfall, as opposed to the rest of the state that seems poised for less precipitation.

Chris Coleman is the chief meteorologist for ERCOT. He said his preliminary winter forecast looked warm and dry, and he believed Texans could rely on an overall warmer, drier winter scenario.

“Looking at historical patterns, second-year La Niñas tend to be even drier and warmer than the first,” he said. “It doesn’t rule out cold events. We’ve seen several mild winters punctuated by one or two periods of extreme cold. 

“We could still see brief periods of arctic air,” he said. “But compared to last year, the indicators for a significant cold outbreak are weaker. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen, just that it’s less likely.”

Prepared for a Cold Snap
Jim Galvin is the senior vice president of power supply & risk management at United. He said that, while it is hard to predict another Uri, and the possibilities currently look slim, he said, it is imperative to be prepared should conditions suddenly materialize. 

ERCOT experienced a new peak this past Feb. 20, (80,560 MW). However, it did not enter into any Energy  Emergency Alerts during this peak-usage time period, he said. 

That means there was sufficient capacity that met the demand despite the frigid temperatures. With the growth in generation since Uri and in 2025 alone, ERCOT remains confident that the chance of emergency conditions remain low this winter.

“ERCOT remains confident about having sufficient capacity for this winter’s peak demand,” he said.